The Mathematical Statistics Theory Application on the Price Fluctuation Analysis

Grain price and output fluctuation are the normal state of market economy. It is one of the most important economic researches to understand grain price and output fluctuation law, which provides theory basis for the macroeconomic regulation and control. According to the cobweb model theory, the relationship between citrus production and price is accord with the divergence type of cobweb model .This means that simply relying on market regulation can make fluctuation between production and price bigger, go against citrus production and cultivation, thus, affecting the interests of farmers. It is well-known most farmers are concerned about the future price trend and the probability of price fluctuation. This paper uses mathematical statistics theory to study the citrus price changes, and the corresponding change trend, providing a theoretical basis for majority of farmers to better estimate citrus price change trend.